5th November 2024: Horsham
Today’s the Day
5th November 2024. Potentially the most portentous days of my lifetime. Today’s the day. 164.3 million voters will determine who is to be the 47th President of the United States of America. The Senate and Congress are also up for grabs. This is a big deal. I am not American. This is a huge moment for us all.
In 2016, Donald J Trump pulled off an extraordinary and unexpected victory in the presidential elections. Back then, I wrote that the people of America are entitled to make their own choice. As Britons and Europeans, I suggested, it is not our business to express a view on who they should elect as leader. I held that position in 2020. I still do so today.
However, we all have a vested interest in the result. For generations, America has built and sustained a position of influence and leadership of the so called ‘free world’. As President, the winner of this election will wield extraordinary power at home. They will also have a powerful influence on international politics and diplomacy across the world. That’s why the outcome of this election is momentous for us all.
In 2020 I reflected that the political elite in America have the responsibility to put forward candidates for President who will uphold the Constitution, serve as strong and effective leaders at home, and provide positive influence on the world stage. Again, I stand by those comments in 2024. Therein lies the problem. In 2024, as in 2016 and 2020 they have abjectly failed to do so.
The Reject – Biden
After the uncertainties of the 2016 – 2020 Trump presidency, the appointment of Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States brought some reassurance to the world stage, but after 4 years he has become an extraordinarily unpopular leader at home. I think it’s difficult to overstate the level of his unpopularity amongst his electorate. His pubic persona is weak. His grasp on leadership is shaky. His health is visibly in decline. He has failed to adequately address the issue of the southern border. His performance on the world stage has done little to boost him at home or abroad. He has built a strong economy, yet seems unable to capitalise on that. Most Americans blame him for price hikes and inflationary pressure on household budgets. From outside America, his determination to stand for a second term of office looked like disastrous misjudgment, gifting the Trump campaign an undeserved and massive early boost.
The choice
The choice facing the American people is stark.
Trump
Let’s be honest, Donald J Trump is a pretty easy target. He was not, is not and never shall be fit for the role of President. He is a habitual and brazen liar. He is a narcissist. He is a manipulator. He is a convicted felon. He is a misogynist. He is a failed business man. He has polarised the nation. He is visibly cognitively challenged. These things are, or should be, disqualifying. Seen from anywhere outside the MAGA bubble which he inhabits in the US, his continued hold over American politics is inexplicable. His place as Republican candidate in this election is nothing short of obscene. He is not fit to lead America. I could go on, but frankly he doesn’t deserve further attention. He is dangerously unqualified to wield influence on the world stage.
Harris
In the US, Vice Presidents are not intended to make any particular impression on domestic politics. They are expected to remain in the background. They have little public profile. Biden’s withdrawal from the race opened the door to the somewhat bizarre insertion of Kamala Harris as candidate (completely setting aside the system of Presidential primaries which had nominated Biden – not Harris). Harris was largely unknown at home and abroad. There’s no doubt that her arrival transformed and energised the Democrat campaign. As a highly experienced politician and a black female candidate she should be a great option. There was a huge ‘honeymoon’ bounce in her favour (driven as much as anything by a huge sigh of relief that Biden had stepped down), but it hasn’t been sustained. There is, or should be, much to recommend her, but perhaps not surprisingly, she has struggled to distance herself from what is views in America as the toxic political legacy of the Biden administration.
The End Piece
So here we are. 5th November 2024. My views are largely as they were in 2016 and 2020. The fate of America rests with the American people and it doesn’t really matter what I think.
The failure of the American political elite to produce candidates who can serve as strong and effective leaders of America, and as positive influencers on the world stage, is consequential. The choice is bleak.
On one side, there is a disfunctional convicted felon with an appalling track record who appears to be in cognitive melt down. On the other, a relatively unknown Democrat who is doubtless a person of great integrity but whose best known quality at home and abroad is that she is not Joe Biden. Sadly, that is a quality which she shares with her opponent.
The outcome of the election is uncertain. American or not, we have reason to be concerned. This is a potentially momentous day. Optimism is in short supply.
Of course, Kamala does have one additional quality which might yet save the day. She is not Donald J Trump. That may just be enough. Perhaps there is a small opportunity for optimism after all.
